Henrietta, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS61 KBUF 140618
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
118 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Slight adjustments to precipitation type in the second half of next
week. Rain favored a bit more around midweek, with more snow or
mixed precipitation later in the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming temperatures may cause movement of ice on area creeks and
streams next week.

2) Active pattern returns by the middle of next week with chances
for both rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming temperatures may cause movement of ice on
area creeks and streams next week.

Height rises are expected across much of the central CONUS early in
the week behind the surface low moving off the Carolina coast and
northern stream shortwave passing across northern NY Sunday night. A
gradual rise in 850 mb temps will finally climb above 0C supportive
of above normal temperatures for mid-February. While not
impressively warm, highs generally around 40F early next week
will support some melting of the snowpack leading to increasing
water levels on area streams and creeks. Latest NBM temperatures
would suggest 200 to 300 thawing degree hours across western
New York which is less than ideal, but will still need to be
monitored for ice jam flooding, especially with the vast amount
of ice present with this long stretch of frigid temperatures
over the past few weeks. Latest NAEFS guidance does show a few
of the Buffalo creeks approaching Action Stage by the middle of
next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Active pattern returns by the middle of next week
with chances for both rain and snow.

A deep troughing pattern will shift inland from the Pacific coast
early next week, which will direct several waves of low pressure
across the CONUS` midsection. The first of these waves should arrive
in the lower Great Lakes region closer to midweek, with high chances
for widespread precipitation across the forecast area by Wednesday.
Ptype still remains in question as a strong Arctic high will extend
down across ON/QC Provinces from Hudson Bay, causing a tightening
thermal gradient to set up across the Great Lakes. As of this
update, ensemble guidance has trended back towards a slightly warmer
solution, but temperature profiles remain marginal. In general a mix
of rain and snow is likely, with rain being favored earlier in the
week and south of Lake Ontario, while snow becomes the dominant
ptype east of the lake and closer to next weekend. It is not out of
the question with the Arctic high to the north and low level ENE
flow that a period or two of sleet and/or freezing rain is also
observed, but uncertainty remains very high in this potential. In
addition, if and plain rain becomes increasingly favored, it may
further complicate hydrological issues with any swollen, ice-jammed
creeks and streams following the warmup earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mid level trough and associated surface trough will exit southeast
of the area early this morning, bringing a diminishing trend to the
snow showers. MVFR CIGS will remain fairly widespread today as
low level moisture becomes trapped beneath a steepening
subsidence inversion. Some IFR across higher terrain, mainly
this morning.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...A low chance of snow showers east of
Lake Ontario Sunday night...otherwise mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR with rain and/or snow becoming
likely.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure builds into the lower great Lakes today
bringing lighter winds through tonight. A fast moving clipper
arrives Sunday which may bring a brief period of near Small Craft
conditions.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are
ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/Hitchcock/PP/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock/TMA
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock/TMA